In this article, we summarize which events in the week ahead could impact the gold price and silver price. At the bottom of the article we explain that these events are generaly no fundamental drivers, but mostly the result of trading in COMEX futures.
The past week was quite “boring” in the precious metals complex. Gold and silver traded lower during the week befor recovering on Friday. The miners, obviously, followed a similar path. There was no significant move when the minutes of the FOMC meeting of February 25th and 26h were published on Wednesday. That is not in line with the price reaction of the metals when Mrs. Yellen announced that she would not hike interest rates on February 25th and 26h, which was followed by a strong rally in precious metals. Counterintuitive?
For the week commencing April 13th, there are quite some economic data and central bank announcements scheduled, as seen in the table below. Tuesday is a busy day with economic data out of the US and China, but they are not very likely to move metals and markets (unless some of the data would be shocking). On Wednesday, the European Central Bank will announce their interest rate decision during a press conference. It seems impossible that the ECB will hike interest rates; the most likely scenario is a status quo, there is a small probability that they will lower interest rates. However, President Draghi could have some drivers in his speech which could create short term volatility in markets and metals. On Friday, the latest CPI figures will be released both in the US and Europe. There is a small chance that the CPI will be significantly higher or lower than the previous months.
January 11, 2016